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Accidental war with Russia? – AMAC

Biden runs the risk of accidental escalation in Ukraine — with sloppy words, muddled policies, rambling and strategically ungrounded actions. All-out war with Russia, parameters undefined, is a lose-lose. Incomprehensibly destabilizing, economically suicidal, risking nuclear weapons, this must not happen. Could he?

Biden’s words means less every month, his White House more and more adrift, incoherent, incomprehensible national security strategy. From Afghanistan — a total loss, at a huge cost of credibility — to “opening borders,” begging Iran for a futile peace and begging the Saudis for oil, Biden’s politics collapses.

Switch off US Energy Independence and sabotage the production of fossil fuels, then suddenly exploit the strategic petroleum reserve to lower gas prices – a strategy that hasn’t worked – Biden becomes a walker policy failure. The world knows it.

China has become comfortable berating and insulting us economic, commercial, Securityspatial, maritime and diplomatic, declaring itself – with Russia – the future of the world, bold Biden do something.

Biden’s response – in late May via his secretary of state – was appeasementmaking China a mere competitor orrhythm challenge.” China likes it, understatement and understatement, because it charges for the bear or the eagle.

North Korea meanwhile, silenced and chipped under Trump, resumed ballistics missile launches and nuclear testing. As China’s sidekick, they feel empowered. Iran goes full throttle on uranium enrichment, pushing back nuclear status.

And back to Russia…Biden’s happy wordscatastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, fear of the Taliban, then invitation to a “minor incursion” into Russia, compounded by the absence of aid to Ukraine – are annoying textbooks, an open admission that he has no foreign policyno coherent security strategy.

All of this brings us to…now. National security critics see it — but are reluctant to speak. In the center and on the right, no one wants to point this out, because it could invite Chinese and Russian adventurism. They worry – rightly so – about Taiwan, American allies in the Pacific, in the Middle East, in Africa, in South America.

On the left, critics are silent because they know this is another Biden failure, as politically dangerous for Democrats in November as Biden-induced inflation.

This is what no one says, but everyone thinks: freedom fighters, like those in Ukraine, are admirable, worthy of moral support, speak to our hearts. But they are not NATO, they are not worth sacrificing our nation, our economy or a nuclear war.

The Biden people seem to be navigating their way in the dark, unclear on US policy of engagement, the limits of their support, broader geopolitical awareness. They’re awkward – with the awesome prospect of a superpower showdown hanging in the balance.

We need clear statements, where we will go, and not for a non-NATO ally, a nation that did not previously share deep defense understandings like Taiwan. Clarity, incisive thinking and an attempt to restore credibility are now vital.

Instead, even Biden is fumbling. Same New York Times is suddenly worried. In recent weeks, they’ve asked: Is Biden “trying to help end this conflict, through a settlement that would allow for a sovereign Ukraine and some sort of US-Russian relationship?” ? Or is the US now trying to permanently weaken Russia? »

They added: “Does the administrative purpose past destabilizing Vladimir Putin or having him impeached? Does the United States intend to hold Mr. Putin responsible as a war criminal? Or is the goal to try to avoid a wider war – and if so, how does the blackmail of providing US intelligence to kill Russians and sink one of their ships achieve this? »

For once, the newspaper is right – their questions are just the tip of the iceberg. Big questions — about the failure of engagement and its effects on aggression on a global scale — abound.

Where is the hope? What can be done? What to have to be finished? Biden’s potential to ignite an accidental war with Russia hinges on Russia getting it right.

Beyond clarity of intent, of what we will and will not do, preventing an accidental war hinges on a group of the administration regaining control of the agenda, persuading Biden that strategy, policy, law and scripts matter.

Biden is his own worst enemy, confusing public pronouncements, blurring old clarity, an individual source of misunderstanding, contradictory insecurity and potential preemptive action that spirals out of control, spins out of control, triggers war.

The best thing we can all do is seek consistency, coherence and clarity from this White House. Appeasement is worthless, accidental provocation of war worse.

Saying that Putin “can’t stay in power”, implying that the Americans will “deploy” to Ukraine, mislabeling defensive weapons as offensive, bragging about having helped Ukraine with “intelligence” to sinking Russian ships, crafting policy on the fly – for Russia, China, Taiwan or anywhere else – is sheer madness. This madness must stop.

Is a direct war with Russia likely? No, as Russia knows – and we should – it’s a lose-lose. But humiliating Russia is not in our interest either, nor is retroactively making Ukraine NATO. Peace depends on credibility, judgment, proportionality, morality and foresight. Biden misses all five. Perhaps we could ask key policy makers to clarify the strategy, because accidental war is bad.

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